Here's what I say to all that: Bullshit. Let me break things down.
Is the tried and tested method of rebuilding via the draft a sound one? Absolutely. But guess what? It's not the only one. Drafting a top five player more often than not yields a very capable NHL player. Occasionally it yields a superstar. And very rarely it yields a bust. So yes, drafting a number one overall pick is a great way to rebuild and create a core for many years.
However, drafting a player that high, does not guarantee a Stanley Cup. Let's review teams that drafted 1 and 2 from 1990 until 2004 and see how many cups were won with the players they drafted, shall we?
- 1990 - #1 Quebec, Owen Nolan - 0 cups. #2 Vancouver, Petr Nedved - 0 cups.
- 1991 - #1 Quebec, Eric Lindros - 0 cups. #2 San Jose, Pat Falloon - 0 cups.
- 1992 - #1 Tampa Bay, Roman Hamrlik - 0 cups. #2 Ottawa, Alexei Yashin - 0 cups.
- 1993 - #1 Ottawa, Alexandre Daigle - 0 cups. #2 Hartford, Chris Pronger - 0 cups.
- 1994 - #1 Florida, Ed Jovanoski - 0 cups. #2 Anaheim, Oleg Tevodovsky - 0 cups.
- 1995 - #1 Ottawa, Bryan Berard - 0 cups. #2 NY Islanders, Wade Redden - 0 cups.
- 1996 - #1 Ottawa, Chris Philips - 0 cups. #2 San Jose, Andrei Zyuzin - 0 cups.
- 1997 - #1 Boston, Joe Thorton - 0 cups. #2 San Jose, Patrick Marleau - 0 cups.
- 1998 - #1 Tampa Bay, Vincent Lecavalier - 1 cup. #2 Nashville, David Legwand - 0 cups.
- 1999 - #1 Atlanta, Patrik Stefan - o cups. #2 Vancouver, Daniel Sedin - 0 cups.
- 2000 - #1 NY Islanders, Rick DiPietro - 0 cups. #2 Atlanta, Danny Heatley - 0 cups.
- 2001 - #1 Atlanta, Ilya Kovalchuk - 0 cups. #2 Ottawa, Jason Spezza - 0 cups.
- 2002 - #1 Columbus, Rick Nash - 0 cups. #2 Atlanta, Kari Lehtonen - 0 cups.
- 2003 - #1 Pittsburgh, Mark Andre Fluery - 0 cups. #2 Carolina - Eric Staal, 1 cup.
- 2004 - #1 Washington, Alex Ovechkin - 0 cups. #2 Pittsburgh, Evgeni Malkin, 0 cups.
This is very powerful empirical evidence against the 'Tank for Tavares (or Hedman)" theory using the exact same data that the MSM uses to prove the other side the argument.
Will Hedman and Tavares turn out to be great players? Probably. They may even win a Stanley Cup one day, just not necessarily with the team that drafts them.
So let's assume that there is more than one method to building a winner than being last overall.
Let's say as the season plods on, the Leafs continue their prudent work ethic, learn to finish a few more of the chances they are getting and are hovering around 5th or 6th in the conference by December.
The pessimist out there will scream 'They are screwing everything up!'. The realist, will recognize the team for what it is. Fifth in the eastern conference. You say to yourself, 'Self, this team isn't half bad. Perhaps Uncle Cliff has already made this team better'.
So why would you need the #1 overall pick when your team is already spades better than they were last year?
You don't. You take what assets you have, continue to build and get younger with picks. You don't need to be last to get a good pick.
Now let's assume the 'worst': In January this team is just good enough to hover around 9th or 10th in the conference. Damien and Howie are frothing at the mouth just waiting to write more trite worthy of DGB's Bingo card. What happens then? Simple. You trade everything you got at the trade deadline and fleece as much as you can from those trying to put themselves over the top.
Kubina, Kaberle, Toskala, Antropov, Poni, Anyone over the age of 28 that someone wants. You get picks and you get prospects in return, the more the better. Kaberle & Toskala would be worth a first rounder each at the deadline. Antro, if he keeps up his play could be worth a first rounder, or a late second and a prospect. Blake for anything anyone will give you.
Then the tank begins. You are already in 10th. Losing two or more of your top players all but guarantees a losing finish to the season. Which is exactly what everyone wants!
You can't go wrong with winning in this situation. The alternative is losing, and you win that way as well!
Cheer the buds and quit calling the Fan590 and complaining about everything from 'draft schmaft', to 'Schenn to the WHL', to Richard Peddie, to MLSE only cares about money' to anything else. Just realize you can't lose and cheer this team!
They are playing excellent, exciting hockey right now! It's actually fun to look forward to a game night.
Join me, will you?
5 comments:
Where do I sign up?
It's like I said in my preseason predictions post: regardless of what happens, the Leafs win.
If they actually win then it's because at least some of the kids have stepped up and the ones that haven't can be cleared out.
If they lose then it's because most of the kids haven't panned out and you have a better idea of which to clear out. Oh, and you have an awesome draft pick.
The key is that it isn't an either/or proposition. You have to draft AND develop AND make good signings to win a Cup.
Exactly. That's why this season feels so much better than past ones.
It is a different team and it is a different culture.
...but what if this team out performs all exceptions? Lets say about feb-march they are up top in the standings, what do you think they should do?
They should do nothing. If they are good enough to be top of the standings by feb/march, then is there really a rebuild necessary?
The core of team is young. They've got 4 every day players over the age of 30, Mayers 34, Kubina 31, Kaberle 30, Blake 36 and Toskala 30.
The rest of team is under 30. If they are good enough to be top of the conference, and I think that's an extreme longshot, then they need to tweak what they can at the deadline, and play the offseason game again.
Great analysis man. I did a similar analysis last year (yes, this is what I do in my spare time)… I looked at the top 5 picks from 96-07 (12 years). Out of those 60 picks, only 2 players had won a cup, with the team that drafted them or any other. 2 out of 60 players. But don’t try explaining that stat to the mouthbreathers in “tank nation”, they don’t want to hear it.
Post a Comment